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                                                                                                                                                                          必赢亚洲国际线上娱乐:瑞达期货:节前供应压力增大,玉米反弹空间有限

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:瑞达期货:节前供应压力增大,玉米反弹空间有限)

                                                                                                                                                                          盘面情况:C1905日内增仓上涨,最高报1828,最低报1814,收盘1820,较上一交易日+0.28%;成交量33.4万,-22.9万;持仓1272858,+27792,基差53,+11;C5-9月价差-30,+2。CS1905日内缩量增仓上涨,最高报2272,最低报2261,收盘2266,较上一交易日+0.09%;成交量11.7万,-12.0万;持仓258462,+3256,基差184,+7;CS5-9月价差-31,+6。

                                                                                                                                                                          消息:1、截止1月15日,山东地区淀粉企业理论加工利润-21.4元/吨,河北盈利-1元/吨,河南盈利92元/吨,辽宁盈利14.4元/吨,吉林盈利73.2元/吨,黑龙江盈利78.5元/吨。2、农业农村部公布数据显示,国内已出现102例非洲猪瘟疫情(100起家猪,2起野猪),涉及24个省份,74个市(区、盟),累计扑杀生猪超过85万头。

                                                                                                                                                                          现货市场:玉米锦州港报价1873,+5。淀粉河北报价2460,+0;吉林报价2450,+0;山东报价2550,+0。(单位元/吨)

                                                                                                                                                                          仓单库存:玉米仓单40498吨,-1718,位于历史较高水平。淀粉仓单3071吨,+0,位于历史平均水平。

                                                                                                                                                                          主力持仓:C1905合约前20名多头持仓485724,+4064,前20名空头持仓418126,+5528,前20名净持仓67598,-688;CS1905合约前20名多头持仓108387,+2234,前20名空头持仓84376,+2050,前20名净持仓24011,+217。

                                                                                                                                                                          总结:供应方面,距离春节只剩20天左右时间,基层种植户余粮同比仍高,节前变现需求令基层种植户加快售粮进度,阶段性供应压力上升。需求方面,临近春节,淀粉深加工消费仍有增长空间,但非洲猪瘟持续发酵,饲料需求疲软,整体上需求承压。不过考虑到前期利空逐渐消化,以及底部有种植成本、农户惜售情绪、东北轮储收购的支撑作用,玉米进一步下探空间有限。整体而言,预计玉米期价后期走势偏空震荡。操作上,C1905合约压力位1850元/吨,支撑位1800元/吨,建议在1835元/吨卖出,止损1850元/吨,目标1805元/吨。淀粉方面,主要受原料玉米的影响比较大,随原料玉米波动。此外淀粉企业、酒精的开机率环比下降,受春节备货预期,下游需求刚需仍存,利好淀粉市场,预计淀粉后期震荡走势为主。CS1905的压力位2300元/吨,建议维持观望。

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